To what extent is climate change adaptation a novel challenge for agricultural modellers?

Authors Organisations
  • Richard Kipling(Author)
  • C. F. E. Topp(Author)
    Scotland's Rural College
  • André Bannink(Author)
    Wageningen University and Research Centre
  • Dave Bartley(Author)
    Moredun Research Institute
  • Isabel Blanco-penedo(Author)
    Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
  • R Cortignani(Author)
    University of Tuscia
  • Agustin del Prado(Author)
    BC3 Basque Centre for Climate Change
  • Gabriele Dono(Author)
    University of Tuscia
  • Philippe Faverdin(Author)
    Agrocampus Ouest, INRA
  • Anne-Isabelle Graux(Author)
    Agrocampus Ouest, INRA
  • Nicholas J Hutchings(Author)
    Aarhus University
  • Ludwig Lauwers(Author)
    Ghent University
  • Şeyda Özkan Gülzari(Author)
    Wageningen UR Livestock Research
  • Pytrik Reidsma(Author)
    Wageningen University and Research Centre
  • Susanne Rolinski(Author)
    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
  • Margarita Ruiz-Ramos(Author)
    Technical University of Madrid
  • Daniel L. Sandars(Author)
    Cranfield University
  • Renata Sándor(Author)
    Hungarian Academy of Sciences
  • Martin Schönhart(Author)
    University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna
  • Giovanna Seddaiu(Author)
    University of Sassari
  • Jantine van Middelkoop(Author)
    Wageningen UR Livestock Research
  • Shailesh Shrestha(Author)
    Scotland's Rural College
  • Isabelle Weindl(Author)
    Leibniz Institute for Agricultural Engineering Potsdam-Bornim (ATB)
  • Vera Eory(Author)
    Scotland's Rural College
Type Article
Original languageEnglish
Article number104492
Number of pages22
JournalEnvironmental Modelling and Software
Volume120
Early online date29 Jul 2019
DOI
Publication statusPublished - 01 Oct 2019
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Abstract

Modelling is key to adapting agriculture to climate change (CC), facilitating evaluation of the impacts and efficacy of adaptation measures, and the design of optimal strategies. Although there are many challenges to modelling agricultural CC adaptation, it is unclear whether these are novel or, whether adaptation merely adds new motivations to old challenges. Here, qualitative analysis of modellers’ views revealed three categories of challenge: Content, Use, and Capacity. Triangulation of findings with reviews of agricultural modelling and Climate Change Risk Assessment was then used to highlight challenges specific to modelling adaptation. These were refined through literature review, focussing attention on how the progressive nature of CC affects the role and impact of modelling. Specific challenges identified were: Scope of adaptations modelled, Information on future adaptation, Collaboration to tackle novel challenges, Optimisation under progressive change with thresholds, and Responsibility given the sensitivity of future outcomes to initial choices under progressive change.

Keywords

  • adaptation, agricultural modelling, climate change, research challenges