The explanatory power of representative agent earnings momentum models

Authors Organisations
Type Article
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)473-492
JournalReview of Quantitative Finance and Accounting
Volume44
Issue number3
Early online date08 Nov 2013
DOI
Publication statusPublished - Apr 2015
Links
Permanent link
View graph of relations
Citation formats

Abstract

This paper examines the predictive performance of two representative agent models of earnings momentum using the US S & P 500 sample frame in the years 1991-2006. For successive sequences of quarterly earnings outcomes over a three year horizon of quarterly increases/decreases, etc. we ask whether these models can capture the likelihood of reversion and, secondly, the stock market response to observed quarterly earnings change sequences for our chosen sample. We find evidence of a far greater frequency of persistent quarterly earnings rises and hence a more muted reaction to their occurrence. Persistent losses are both far less common and more salient in their impact on stock prices.

Keywords

  • Earnings momentum, Law of small numbers, Bayesian inference, G14, M4, G11