Potential impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies for sunflower in Pakistan

Authors Organisations
  • Muhammad Awais(Author)
    The Islamia University
    University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan
  • Aftab Wajid(Author)
    University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan
    University of California, Davis
  • Muhammad Farrukh Salee(Author)
    University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan
  • Wajid Nasim(Author)
    COMSATS University Islamabad
    Institute Agronomique Mediterraneen de Montpellier
  • Ashfaq Ahmad(Author)
    University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan
  • Muhammad Aown Sammar Raza(Author)
    The Islamia University
  • Muhammad Usman Bashir(Author)
    The Islamia University
  • Muhammad Mubeen(Author)
    COMSATS University Islamabad
  • Hafiz Mohkum Hammad(Author)
    COMSATS University Islamabad
  • Muhammad Habib ur Rahman(Author)
    Muhammad Nawaz Sharif University of Agriculture
  • Naveed Arshad(Author)
  • Jamshad Hussain(Author)
    University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan
Type Article
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)13719-13730
Number of pages12
JournalEnvironmental Science and Pollution Research
Volume25
Issue number14
Early online date05 Mar 2018
DOI
Publication statusPublished - 01 May 2018
Links
Permanent link
View graph of relations
Citation formats

Abstract

Growth, development, and economic yield of agricultural crops rely on moisture, temperature, light, and carbon dioxide concentration. However, the amount of these parameters is varying with time due to climate change. Climate change is factual and ongoing so, first principle of agronomy should be to identify climate change potential impacts and adaptation measures to manage the susceptibilities of agricultural sector. Crop models have ability to predict the crop’s yield under changing climatic conditions. We used OILCROP-SUN model to simulate the influence of elevated temperature and CO2 on crop growth duration, maximum leaf area index (LAI), total dry matter (TDM), and achene yield of sunflower under semi-arid conditions of Pakistan (Faisalabad, Punjab). The model was calibrated and validated with the experimental data of 2012 and 2013, respectively. The simulation results showed that phenological events of sunflower were not changed at higher concentration of CO2 (430 and 550 ppm). However LAI, achene yield, and TDM increased by 0.24, 2.41, and 4.67% at 430 ppm and by 0.48, 3.09, and 9.87% at 550 ppm, respectively. Increased temperature (1 and 2 °C) reduced the sunflower duration to remain green that finally led to less LAI, achene yield, and TDM as compared to present conditions. However, the drastic effects of increased temperature on sunflower were reduced to some extent at 550 ppm CO2 concentration. Evaluation of different adaptation options revealed that 21 days earlier (as compared to current sowing date) planting of sunflower crop with increased plant population (83,333 plants ha−1) could reduce the yield losses due to climate change. Flowering is the most critical stage of sunflower to water scarcity. We recommended skipping second irrigation or 10% (337.5 mm) less irrigation water application to conserve moisture under possible water scarce conditions of 2025 and 2050

Keywords

  • achene yield, OILCROP-SUN model, helianthus annus L., leaf area index, total dry matter, Helianthus annuus L, Total dry matter, Achene yield, Leaf area index