Exploration of factors associated with spatial−temporal veterinary surveillance diagnoses of rumen fluke (Calicophoron daubneyi) infections in ruminants using zero-inflated mixed modelling

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Exploration of factors associated with spatial−temporal veterinary surveillance diagnoses of rumen fluke (Calicophoron daubneyi) infections in ruminants using zero-inflated mixed modelling. / Jones, Rhys Aled; Williams, Hefin Wyn; Mitchell, Sian; Robertson, Sara; Macrelli, Michele.

In: Parasitology, Vol. 149, No. 2, 18.02.2022, p. 253-260.

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@article{38e67df4890e4f95a6fba386c96b6226,
title = "Exploration of factors associated with spatial−temporal veterinary surveillance diagnoses of rumen fluke (Calicophoron daubneyi) infections in ruminants using zero-inflated mixed modelling",
abstract = "Rumen fluke (Calicophoron daubneyi) has emerged as a prominent parasite of ruminants in Europe over the past decades. Epidemiological questions remain regarding this observed increase in prevalence as well as the prospect for future paramphistomosis risk. This study aimed to identify factors associated with the temporal-spatial prevalence of rumen fluke as measured by veterinary surveillance in a temperate region using zero inflated negative binomial mixed modelling. Modelling revealed that summer rainfall, raindays and sunshine hours, and mean winter temperature as significant positively associated climate variables for rumen fluke prevalence over space and time (P<0.05). Rumen fluke prevalence was also higher in counties with higher cattle/sheep densities and was positively associated with rumen fluke case rates in the previous years (P<0.05). Equivalent models for fasciolosis prevalence revealed no significant association with winter temperature and sunshine hours, (P > 0.05). These results confirm a strong association between rainfall and the prevalence of both fluke species in a temperate environment, likely due to the role of Galba truncatula as their intermediate snail host. It also highlights the potential added importance of winter temperature and sunshine hours in rumen fluke epidemiology when compared to liver fluke",
keywords = "Calicophoron daubneyi, Fasciola hepatica, fasciolosis, paramphistomosis, rumen fluke, spatial-temporal modelling, veterinary surveillance, zero inflated mixed models, spatial−temporal modelling",
author = "Jones, {Rhys Aled} and Williams, {Hefin Wyn} and Sian Mitchell and Sara Robertson and Michele Macrelli",
note = "Funding Information: We would like to thank the staff at the APHA for sharing veterinary surveillance data from the VIDA database as well as the farmers and veterinarians who contributed to its creation. We would also like to thank the staff at the APHA for sharing guidance regarding data interpretation and Mathew Denwood for sharing statistical analysis advice. Publisher Copyright: Copyright {\textcopyright} The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press",
year = "2022",
month = feb,
day = "18",
doi = "10.1017/S0031182021001761",
language = "English",
volume = "149",
pages = "253--260",
journal = "Parasitology",
issn = "0031-1820",
publisher = "Cambridge University Press",
number = "2",

}

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TY - JOUR

T1 - Exploration of factors associated with spatial−temporal veterinary surveillance diagnoses of rumen fluke (Calicophoron daubneyi) infections in ruminants using zero-inflated mixed modelling

AU - Jones, Rhys Aled

AU - Williams, Hefin Wyn

AU - Mitchell, Sian

AU - Robertson, Sara

AU - Macrelli, Michele

N1 - Funding Information: We would like to thank the staff at the APHA for sharing veterinary surveillance data from the VIDA database as well as the farmers and veterinarians who contributed to its creation. We would also like to thank the staff at the APHA for sharing guidance regarding data interpretation and Mathew Denwood for sharing statistical analysis advice. Publisher Copyright: Copyright © The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press

PY - 2022/2/18

Y1 - 2022/2/18

N2 - Rumen fluke (Calicophoron daubneyi) has emerged as a prominent parasite of ruminants in Europe over the past decades. Epidemiological questions remain regarding this observed increase in prevalence as well as the prospect for future paramphistomosis risk. This study aimed to identify factors associated with the temporal-spatial prevalence of rumen fluke as measured by veterinary surveillance in a temperate region using zero inflated negative binomial mixed modelling. Modelling revealed that summer rainfall, raindays and sunshine hours, and mean winter temperature as significant positively associated climate variables for rumen fluke prevalence over space and time (P<0.05). Rumen fluke prevalence was also higher in counties with higher cattle/sheep densities and was positively associated with rumen fluke case rates in the previous years (P<0.05). Equivalent models for fasciolosis prevalence revealed no significant association with winter temperature and sunshine hours, (P > 0.05). These results confirm a strong association between rainfall and the prevalence of both fluke species in a temperate environment, likely due to the role of Galba truncatula as their intermediate snail host. It also highlights the potential added importance of winter temperature and sunshine hours in rumen fluke epidemiology when compared to liver fluke

AB - Rumen fluke (Calicophoron daubneyi) has emerged as a prominent parasite of ruminants in Europe over the past decades. Epidemiological questions remain regarding this observed increase in prevalence as well as the prospect for future paramphistomosis risk. This study aimed to identify factors associated with the temporal-spatial prevalence of rumen fluke as measured by veterinary surveillance in a temperate region using zero inflated negative binomial mixed modelling. Modelling revealed that summer rainfall, raindays and sunshine hours, and mean winter temperature as significant positively associated climate variables for rumen fluke prevalence over space and time (P<0.05). Rumen fluke prevalence was also higher in counties with higher cattle/sheep densities and was positively associated with rumen fluke case rates in the previous years (P<0.05). Equivalent models for fasciolosis prevalence revealed no significant association with winter temperature and sunshine hours, (P > 0.05). These results confirm a strong association between rainfall and the prevalence of both fluke species in a temperate environment, likely due to the role of Galba truncatula as their intermediate snail host. It also highlights the potential added importance of winter temperature and sunshine hours in rumen fluke epidemiology when compared to liver fluke

KW - Calicophoron daubneyi

KW - Fasciola hepatica

KW - fasciolosis

KW - paramphistomosis

KW - rumen fluke

KW - spatial-temporal modelling

KW - veterinary surveillance

KW - zero inflated mixed models

KW - spatial−temporal modelling

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85125681142&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1017/S0031182021001761

DO - 10.1017/S0031182021001761

M3 - Article

C2 - 34658327

VL - 149

SP - 253

EP - 260

JO - Parasitology

JF - Parasitology

SN - 0031-1820

IS - 2

ER -

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