To what extent is climate change adaptation a novel challenge for agricultural modellers?

Awduron Sefydliadau
  • Richard Kipling(Awdur)
  • C. F. E. Topp(Awdur)
    Scotland Rural College (SRUC)
  • André Bannink(Awdur)
    Wageningen University and Research Centre
  • Dave Bartley(Awdur)
    Moredun Research Institute
  • Isabel Blanco-penedo(Awdur)
    Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
  • R Cortignani(Awdur)
    University of Tuscia
  • Agustin del Prado(Awdur)
    BC3 Basque Centre for Climate Change
  • Gabriele Dono(Awdur)
    University of Tuscia
  • Philippe Faverdin(Awdur)
    Agrocampus Ouest, INRA
  • Anne-Isabelle Graux(Awdur)
    Agrocampus Ouest, INRA
  • Nicholas J Hutchings(Awdur)
    Aarhus University
  • Ludwig Lauwers(Awdur)
    Ghent University
  • Şeyda Özkan Gülzari(Awdur)
    Wageningen UR Livestock Research
  • Pytrik Reidsma(Awdur)
    Wageningen University and Research Centre
  • Susanne Rolinski(Awdur)
    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
  • Margarita Ruiz-Ramos(Awdur)
    Technical University of Madrid
  • Daniel L. Sandars(Awdur)
    Cranfield University
  • Renata Sándor(Awdur)
    Hungarian Academy of Sciences
  • Martin Schönhart(Awdur)
    University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna
  • Giovanna Seddaiu(Awdur)
    University of Sassari
  • Jantine van Middelkoop(Awdur)
    Wageningen UR Livestock Research
  • Shailesh Shrestha(Awdur)
    Scotland Rural College (SRUC)
  • Isabelle Weindl(Awdur)
    Leibniz Institute for Agricultural Engineering Potsdam-Bornim (ATB)
  • Vera Eory(Awdur)
    Scotland Rural College (SRUC)
Math Erthygl
Iaith wreiddiolSaesneg
Rhif yr erthygl104492
Nifer y tudalennau22
CyfnodolynEnvironmental Modelling and Software
Cyfrol120
Dyddiad ar-lein cynnar29 Gorff 2019
Dangosyddion eitem ddigidol (DOIs)
StatwsCyhoeddwyd - 01 Hyd 2019
Arddangos ystadegau lawrlwytho
Gweld graff cysylltiadau
Fformatau enwi

Crynodeb

Modelling is key to adapting agriculture to climate change (CC), facilitating evaluation of the impacts and efficacy of adaptation measures, and the design of optimal strategies. Although there are many challenges to modelling agricultural CC adaptation, it is unclear whether these are novel or, whether adaptation merely adds new motivations to old challenges. Here, qualitative analysis of modellers’ views revealed three categories of challenge: Content, Use, and Capacity. Triangulation of findings with reviews of agricultural modelling and Climate Change Risk Assessment was then used to highlight challenges specific to modelling adaptation. These were refined through literature review, focussing attention on how the progressive nature of CC affects the role and impact of modelling. Specific challenges identified were: Scope of adaptations modelled, Information on future adaptation, Collaboration to tackle novel challenges, Optimisation under progressive change with thresholds, and Responsibility given the sensitivity of future outcomes to initial choices under progressive change.

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